Strong renewables output drives soft finish to spring
Compared to 2024, average spot prices in November 2025 were significantly weaker across the National Electricity Market (NEM). Prices fell by around 65% in Queensland and New South Wales, and by 50% in Victoria and South Australia.
Low price volatility combined with a high frequency of negative prices kept average prices in November broadly in line with October in the northern states, while prices in Victoria and South Australia fell by more than 35% month-on-month. Prices were negative for 31% of intervals in NSW and Queensland, 47% in Victoria, and around half of all intervals in South Australia.
Renewable generation was a key driver of these outcomes. Average wind generation across the NEM was 39% higher than November 2024, while grid-scale solar output increased by 16%. This strong renewable contribution offset more expensive generation, with gas generation down 45% and hydro down 25% year-on-year. Continued renewable investment, alongside additional battery capacity reducing reliance on peaking gas and hydro, is expected to maintain downward pressure on wholesale prices ahead of the next major coal plant retirement.
This near-term weakness in spot prices has flowed through to futures markets. ASX electricity futures declined across all states during November and into early December, reflecting softer short-term price expectations.
Limited volatility despite hot conditions
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