Spot prices remain low as demand decreases overall 

Wholesale prices throughout April 2026 were relatively low across the NEM, with mainland regions generally averaging between $35/MWh and $60/MWh. TAS was the main exception, recording the highest monthly average at $85.2/MWh, while VIC was the lowest-priced region at $35.7/MWh, reflecting sustained daytime price suppression and frequent negative pricing. 

In April, all states showed a clear solar-shaped intraday price profile. Prices were weakest from late morning to early afternoon, particularly in VIC, SA and QLD, before rising into the evening ramp around 6pm. This highlights that even in a moderate to average priced month, energy value varies materially by time of day. 

High-price volatility was generally contained, although SA remained the exception, recording 40 intervals above $300/MWh throughout the month. Continued exposure to both very low daytime prices and sharp evening spikes or system-tightness events contributed to the volatility. 

Overall, April continued to demonstrate the structural reshaping of NEM price outcomes. Daytime renewable output suppressed prices, negative pricing remained concentrated in high-renewables regions, and evening supply retained a clear premium.  

For market participants, the key commercial signal was not only the monthly average price, but the spread between low-value daytime energy and higher-value evening supply. This continues to support the value of batteries and flexible demand. 

Warm autumn conditions 

April 2026 was a generally warm and dry month across much of the NEM, shaped by persistent high-pressure systems over eastern and southern Australia.  

These conditions reduced rainfall and cloud cover, supporting strong daytime solar output and contributing to low and negative prices during the middle of the day. However, weaker pressure gradients also likely reduced wind generation at times, while generally mild temperatures limited more extreme demand outcomes. 

Rainfall was below average across much of Australia, with NSW particularly dry. The state recorded its second-driest April on record, receiving only around 13% of its average April rainfall. For the NEM, these dry and clear conditions supported solar generation but may also have implications for hydro inflows and longer-term water storage. 

Changes in forward contract prices  

The forward market appeared to absorb April’s softer physical pricing, with both base energy and cap products marked lower. Broad-based weakness in base swaps, alongside falling cap prices, indicates the market reduced expectations for both average prices and near-term volatility.  

SA remained the key exception: although its cap prices also declined, Q2 caps stayed the highest among mainland regions, consistent with its physical market profile of frequent negative pricing and the highest number of intervals above $300/MWh. 

April 2026 NEM insights by state

New South Wales

  • Average spot price of $59.73/MWh, with 48 hours of negative prices and no prices above $300/MWh 
  • $81.44/MWh difference in average 30-minute spot prices at the cheapest and most expensive times of day 
  • No five-minute intervals averaged negative prices across the month 
  • 37% total renewable generation through the month 
  • Minimum demand of 3,494 MW 
  • Peak demand of 9,895 MW 

Queensland 

  • Average spot price of $53.32/MWh, with 97 hours of negative prices and 2 intervals priced above $300/MWh 
  • $91.64/MWh difference in average 30-minute spot prices at the cheapest and most expensive times of day 
  • No five-minute intervals averaged negative prices across the month 
  • 34% total renewable generation through the month 
  • Minimum demand of 3,556 MW 
  • Peak demand of 8,714 MW 

South Australia 

  • Average spot price of $56/MWh, with 215 hours of negative prices and 3.25 hours above $300/MWh 
  • $98.21/MWh difference in average 30-minute spot prices at the cheapest and most expensive times of day 
  • No five-minute intervals averaged negative prices across the month 
  • 70% total renewable generation through the month 
  • Minimum demand of 13 MW 
  • Peak demand of 1,874 MW 

Tasmania 

  • Average spot price of $85.18/MWh, with 1 hour of negative prices and no prices above $300/MWh 
  • $26.58/MWh difference in average 30-minute spot prices at the cheapest and most expensive times of day 
  • No five-minute intervals averaged negative prices across the month 
  • 97% total renewable generation through the month 
  • Minimum demand of 761 MW 
  • Peak demand of 1,350 MW 

Victoria 

  • Average spot price of $35.46/MWh, with 231 hours of negative prices and no prices above $300/MWh 
  • $83.11/MWh difference in average 30-minute spot prices at the cheapest and most expensive times of day 
  • No five-minute intervals averaged negative prices across the month 
  • 39% total renewable generation through the month 
  • Minimum demand of 1,848 MW 
  • Peak demand of 6,569 MW 

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